“For Meloni it was useful because the principal policies at international and European level, such as debt and immigration, all begin from the Commission and therefore she had every advantage in negotiating and meeting with her,” said Marco Valbruzzi at the University of Naples Federico II.
During the heated Italian EU election campaign, Italy’s far-right leader and Meloni’s coalition partner Matteo Salvini has been bashing Meloni for her close ties with von der Leyen. Yet the Italian prime minister is deliberately keeping her options open, including potential cooperation with Europe’s most prominent far-right leader, Le Pen.
Game over?
By showing their cards so early on in the campaign, von der Leyen and Meloni risk taking more blows than benefits out of the relationship.
The other European capitals, big and small, are watching the pair with increasing scrutiny, asking: Will Meloni really suddenly become the kingmaker of the next European top jobs carve-up and swing the EU policy to the right?
The EU, and especially its top jobs puzzle after the European election, has historically been led by the fabled Franco-German engine. But that engine has been sputtering in recent years, and the difficult personal relationship between French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz doesn’t help. It leaves a power vacuum that Meloni at times, for example on swinging the EU’s migration policy more to the right, has successfully filled. She has also been a key bridge figure in convincing Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán to sign up for the EU’s support of Ukraine.
But it doesn’t make Meloni the ultimate European kingmaker, four European diplomats and officials said. First, the EPP is set to remain the biggest political force in the European Parliament. Second, Russia’s full-scale invasion has turned the tables on the political weight of Eastern Europe. Europe’s eastern countries are increasingly putting their foot down on getting more political influence in Brussels, both in support for Ukraine and in future job portfolios.
The officials pointed, for example, to the revival of the so-called Weimar Triangle composed of Paris, Berlin and Warsaw since the return of the EPP’s Donald Tusk to the European Council table.
With all eyes on Meloni, the real dealmakers after the election may be found elsewhere, said another EU diplomat. “Everybody’s saying that Italy’s the kingmaker but Meloni’s strategy won’t matter in the end.”
Barbara Moens reported from Brussels. Hannah Roberts reported from Rome. Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting from Brussels and Clea Caulcutt contributed reporting from Paris.