The IMD highlighted that its forecasts of the monsoon onset date over Kerala have been accurate for the past 19 years, except for 2015.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced that the southwest monsoon is anticipated to arrive over Kerala around May 31. Typically, the monsoon begins in Kerala on June 1 with a margin of error of about 7 days, then progresses northwards, covering the entire country by around July 15.
This year, the IMD’s projections suggest that the southwest monsoon will start in Kerala around May 31, with a potential error margin of ± 4 days. This onset date is crucial for tracking the monsoon’s movement across India, bringing relief from the sweltering summer heat as it advances northward.
Utilizing a sophisticated statistical model, the IMD incorporates six key predictors to forecast the onset date, including minimum temperatures in Northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall in the southern peninsula, and various atmospheric parameters in the equatorial southeast Indian Ocean and the southwest Pacific Ocean.
The IMD highlighted that its forecasts of the monsoon onset date over Kerala have been accurate for the past 19 years, except for 2015.
Meanwhile, the IMD predicts a new wave of intense heat to sweep over Northwest and East India starting May 16. Heat wave conditions are expected to escalate in several states, including West Rajasthan, Punjab, south Haryana, parts of Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. East Rajasthan, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh are also anticipated to face severe heatwave conditions during this period.
According to the IMD, heat wave conditions are likely to occur in isolated areas over the Gujarat Region from May 15 to 17; Konkan on May 15 and 16; Saurashtra & Kutch on May 16 and 17; Delhi, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, and Odisha on May 18 and 19, 2024.
Hot and humid weather is expected to persist over Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Bihar on May 15 and 16.