On Sunday, a data table claiming India has achieved the landmark $4-trillion Gross Domestic Product (GDP) mark went viral on internet portals and social media platforms including ‘X’.
Top BJP leaders including Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Union Minister of Jal Shakti Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, referred to this table and flagged the “achievement.”
The data table was factually incorrect but both Fadnavis and Shekhawat have let their comments remain posted on X. Fadnavis was travelling and could not be contacted. Shekhawat too could not be reached.
Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices, is estimated to be Rs 272.41 lakh crore in 2022-23, according to a press release by the National Statistical Office on May 31, 2023.
In US dollar terms, it works out to US $3.34 trillion at the exchange rate of US$ 1 = Rs 81.49 on October 3, 2022.
The exchange rate of the first working day of October is taken since it is the mid-point in the financial year.
A real growth rate of 6.5 per cent estimated by the Reserve Bank of India for the current financial year 2023-24 (nominal growth rate of 10.5-11 per cent, assuming inflation to be 4-4.5 per cent for the year) will take India’s GDP to Rs 302.37 lakh crore (or US$ 3.63 trillion at the exchange rate US $1 = Rs 83.28 on October 2, 2023).
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Even if the nominal growth rate remains 11 per cent (could be more), the Indian economy would top $4 trillion only by the next financial year 2024-25.
Prime Minister Modi has often said India would become a $5 trillion economy soon. “Despite turbulence in the global economic situation, India is the fastest-growing major economy in the world. Soon, India will be a 5 trillion dollar economy,” he had said at the BRICS Business Leaders’ Dialogue in Johannesburg, South Africa, in August this year.
The government has been confident of touching $5 trillion by 2025, but it may take a couple of years more. If the economy grows at 6.5 per cent (nominal growth rate of 11 per cent, assuming inflation at 4.5 per cent), India would touch the figure of $5 trillion by 2026-27 end. It could be earlier if the growth rate is higher.