It is a seismic shift that has seemingly transformed Maharashtra’s political topography and threats of aftershocks have not yet subsided.
The split in the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) on July 2 has led to a realignment in the state’s politics, with the BJP, the Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP arrayed against a depleted Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising the Congress, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), and the Sharad Pawar-led faction of the NCP. By causing massive ruptures in two of the Opposition alliance’s biggest parties, the BJP now finds itself in a position from where it can realistically increase its tally in the Lok Sabha elections. The move also serves the purpose of cutting the MVA down to size and dealing the Opposition’s national unity project a blow at a time when Pawar was playing a key role in getting all the parties together.
Last time, the BJP won 23 seats (same as in 2014), with then-ally Shiv Sena taking home 18 constituencies. The tally of 41 of 48 is a formidable one in a state with the most Lok Sabha seats after Uttar Pradesh. The Congress is the only Opposition party left in Maharashtra with a semblance of a cadre base, but it managed to win just one parliamentary constituency last time and is in no position to stop the BJP and its allies from winning Maharashtra.
“We want more seats than last time. We will fight in coalition with (CM) Shinde ji. We’ve done it twice, so a third time is possible too,” Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP said recently at the Idea Exchange programme of The Indian Express. “Idealism is good, but if you’re kicked out, who cares?”
For the BJP, maximising its potential and winning as many seats as possible from Maharashtra is crucial if it wants to offset potential losses in other states and comfortably close in on 300-plus seats. The ruling party cannot risk seeing its 2019 tally reduced by 60-70 seats, something that would make it more vulnerable than ever before and expose it to the pulls and pressures of allies and the Opposition. It is this urgency that is likely to have convinced the BJP leadership to take in Ajit Pawar and his cohort. Thus Maharashtra is a crucial piece for the BJP on the chessboard of national politics, something the party has to protect and nurture if it wants much distance between itself and the Opposition.
Also, a few months ago after losing the bastion of Kasba Peth after 28 years, the ruling party likely realised that just having the Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde by its side would not be enough in the Lok Sabha elections and the Assembly polls next year and that it would need to deal the MVA a knockout punch. With Ajit Pawar always ready to make the switch — his 2019 rebellion was undone by his uncle Sharad Pawar’s masterful counterattack — it did not prove to be too difficult.
With state politics now entering a three-parties phase, it remains to be seen how the dynamics shift and how it plays out at the level of constituencies. It is not going to be a smooth sail for the BJP as there are murmurs of dissent in its rank and file for admitting into the alliance “outsiders”, people they fear will lay claim on their share of the pie when it comes to the crucial elections next year. If nothing else, the seat-sharing negotiation next year will be a complex affair. Amid the breakneck speed of developments in Maharashtra politics, state BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule spelt out what the BJP was thinking. “In any alliance, we have to make some adjustments. What cannot be overlooked are the electoral gains.”
Also, a lot will depend on how the NCP battle between the nephew and the uncle plays out. The BJP is hoping that Ajit will be able to retain with ease the NCP’s traditional vote base and bastions, mostly in west Maharashtra. In his public remarks, the new Deputy CM has been playing the victim card to gain the support and sympathy of NCP workers. His approach has been to show how he has been wronged and painted the villain by his uncle. He is also hammering home the point that Pawar’s politics itself was never ideologically consistent. But the veteran leader has strategically avoided personal confrontation and has made it clear that his target will be BJP, something that has relevance for national politics as well and ensures he protects his image as a leader who can rally — and has rallied in the past— like-minded parties against the BJP despite obvious divide within his party and family.